Yu+Yu&ltYa

Last Sunday some 3,000 residents of Lviv took part in the public meeting “Let’s Protect Ukraine” (read: the president and his government) organized by the Our Ukraine bloc. Before appearing in front of the masses, bloc leaders, who met with journalists, said they did not link their visit to Lviv with Yulia Tymoshenko’s that same day. They said that the ex-prime minister is most likely behind this coincidence. Roman Bezsmertny even noted that the leader of the BYuT was invited to take part in the meeting but she declined. “Maybe Yulia Volodymyrivna does not know what to tell the people and why they set up the TLYu (joining forces with Lytvyn and Yanukovych) which caused the cabinet’s dismissal,” he stressed. “But we are still prepared to meet with Mrs. Tymoshenko in an open dialogue.” Bezsmertny added that Our Ukraine is staking on the revival of the Orange team. However, the good intentions of “reconciling with the BYuT” were eventually reduced to nil by the slogans circulated at the meeting. Few if any bloc leaders in their speeches avoided lashing out at their former partner. People even chanted “Shame on Yulia Tymoshenko and all criminals!”, although not everyone in the audience supported the speakers’ calls. A similar action took place in Ivano-Frankivsk that day.

While the whole country was preparing to celebrate the New Year, sociologists pestered citizens with questions about the future elections, and they made some unexpected discoveries. Just three months before the election date a great many voters still had no idea of who they will vote for on March 26. Nearly 40 percent of the population doesn’t understand that under the new election law, they will be electing the next Verkhovna Rada and local councils only according to party slates. Such gaps in the political education of adult Ukrainians were revealed in the last days of 2005 by a poll conducted by the Democratic Initiatives Fund and the Ukrainian Sociology Service (2,009 respondents). Without a doubt, another discovery made by sociologists may come in handy for the parliamentary campaign headquarters and spin doctors, namely that 43 percent of respondents are prepared to vote for the same party (bloc) in both the elections to local councils and the next parliament.

The following political forces stand a chance of getting the political process under control on all levels: the Party of the Regions (backed by 31 percent of respondents); its ratings, unlike those of all the other parties, continue to rise. At the same time, Our Ukraine, led by Prime Minister Yuri Yekhanurov, and the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc, led by the former prime minister, are continuing their pitched battle for second place in the parliamentary race. However, their total ratings (13 and 16 percent accordingly) are lower than those of a single leader.

The Socialist Party of Ukraine (4.8%), Communist Party of Ukraine (3.8%), and Lytvyn’s Popular Bloc (3.9%) have a chance to obtain seats in parliament, although in the past month these political forces have lost some popular support. In late December 2005 Natalia Vitrenko’s Popular Opposition also crossed the 3-percent barrier.

Some electoral weight, albeit outside the qualification barrier, is still carried by the Green Party of Ukraine (1.3%), Pora-PRP Bloc (1.3%), and the Ne Tak Opposition Bloc (indicated as the Kravchuk Bloc in the questionnaires: 1%). The absolute majority of other parties and blocs (45 in all) will not collect even 1 percent of the votes. Some 3 percent of respondents intend to vote down one and all; 13 percent remain undecided.

Sociologists also tried to predict the electorate’s moods and how they would be affected by current events. They arrived at the conclusion that the increase in gas prices by Russia had almost no effect on Ukrainian electoral moods: 46 percent did not change their voting intentions, and the 13 percent that decided to vote for political forces campaigning for close economic cooperation with Russia after the gas conflict were made up for by an equal number of Ukrainians, who have decided to support politicians championing Ukraine’s economic independence from Russia.

So far there are no survey results that would indicate the impact of the government’s sudden dismissal on the ratings of the key political players. Iryna Bekeshkina, director of the Democratic Initiatives Fund, believes that the cabinet’s dismissal will further increase the popularity of the Party of the Regions and cause a general decline in the ratings of all the Orange forces competing in the campaign.

Sociologists also point to considerable fluctuations in the ratings of parties and blocs depending on the region polled. The Party of the Regions is mostly supported by Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts (75%); the BYuT has the strongest support in the west (26%), center, and north (24%), and the weakest in the Donbas (less than 1%). Our Ukraine’s regional support shows a similar pattern, being the strongest in the west (34.5%) and the weakest in the Donbas (1%). The SPU is best trusted in the central and northern regions (8%), and least of all in the Donbas (0.4%). The CPU is trusted in the south and east (5%) and least of all in the central and northern territories (2%). Lytvyn’s Popular Bloc can count on the electorate in the central, northern, and southern regions; Natalia Vitrenko, on voters living in the Donbas and southern Ukraine.

The elections are two and a half months away. We offer breaking news from the campaign front. Make your choice!

ELECTIONS ‘06

On Jan. 16 the Central Election Commission started forming territorial election commissions. CEC chairman Yaroslav Davydovych announced that each TEC must include representatives of 15 political parties and blocs that had factions in parliament as of Sept. 1. The law states that the composition of TECS must not exceed 18 persons.

The CEC registered 45 political parties and blocs as participants in the parliamentary elections. According to election slates, a total of 7,733 candidates will be nominated. Of the 53 parties and blocs that submitted documents to register their slates, the CEC denied registration to eight parties and blocs, six of which appealed the decisions.

Owing to the large number of parliamentary contenders, the length of the ballot will be 80 cm (during the last elections it was 60 cm), which makes printing the ballots technically complicated.

Tentative data indicates that parties and blocs will start broadcasting their campaign programs in February on national television and radio channels. The casting of lots to determine airtime is expected in late January.

By Feb. 18 every voter in Ukraine must receive an invitation to cast a ballot in the parliamentary elections of March 26, 2006. The CEC is collaborating with Ukrposhta in working out a unified format of the invitation. Voters failing to receive one must apply to their local polling stations to check their names on the lists.

According to the CEC, there are 36,309,183 voters in Ukraine as of the first ten days of January. This number represents 13,485,521 fewer voters than during the 2004 presidential elections.