Black Sea leverage

In the last few days the stationing of the Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in the Crimea has once again become a burning issue. While Ukrainian high-ranking officials earlier this year spoke about the possibility of increasing the leasing fee for the Russian fleet’s stationing on the territory of Ukraine, now Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych has announced the possibility of renewing the lease. Asked bluntly by journalists about such a possibility, the Ukrainian prime minister said, “Without a doubt. We will always do things that will be to Ukraine’s benefit and serve our national interests.” The Party of Regions’ parliamentary faction leader Raisa Bohatyriova immediately claimed that the media too loosely interpreted what the prime minister said about the Russian fleet’s presence in the Crimea and flatly denied Yanukovych’s statement.

The Presidential Secretariat reacted promptly and harshly to the prime minister’s statement. “The continued presence of the Russian Black Sea Fleet on the territory of Ukraine is impossible in principle because this would require amending the Constitution of Ukraine. Therefore, 2017 will be the last year of the BSF’s presence in Ukraine,” said Taras Stetskiv, advisor to President Yushchenko. Defense Minister Anatolii Hrytsenko noted that the decision on whether to extend the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s presence in the Crimea would be made by high-ranking officials after 2015.

The Ukrainian prime minister’s “slip of the tongue” happened after his negotiations with his Russian counterpart Mikhail Fradkov, when the two sides were making a deal on the gas price. Yanukovych’s words echoed against the background of the ongoing third round of talks with Russia on the conditions of the fleet’s presence and status. This is all the more surprising because to this day the Ukrainian side has not managed to get Russia to fulfill its commitments under the basic Black Sea Fleet agreement signed in May 1997.

At the same time, Ukraine’s foreign ministry is convinced that our country will succeed in getting the Russian side to meet the requirements of the basic agreements and ensure that the Russian formations temporarily stationed in Ukraine will respect Ukrainian legislation. First Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Volodymyr Ohryzko noted that some progress has already been achieved, although many questions remain unresolved. According to the deputy foreign minister, the Ukrainian side has many instruments for achieving its goal. He said this at a briefing on the results of the third session of the sub-commission on the Russian BSF’s presence and operations on the territory of Ukraine (part of the Ukrainian-Russian Interstate Commission) held on Oct. 27 in Sevastopil.

SOME PROGRESS

For the first time during the sub-commission’s sessions the Russian side put forward its proposals on the inventory question, Ohryzko said. In his view, this shows progress on the road to satisfying the Ukrainian side’s demands, or, to be more exact, the demands of the law as far as the basic agreements are concerned. “Undoubtedly, we will continue to see to it that all the requirements are fully met in compliance with the basic agreements,” he stressed. He added that both sides have agreed in no uncertain terms that the sub- lease problem should finally be resolved. As of today, 96 sub-lease contracts have been canceled because they were concluded in contravention of the basic agreements and Ukrainian legislation. Thirty-two sub-lease contracts will soon be revised, and legal action has been taken in the matter of four or five other contracts.

A major step forward at this session was, according to Ohryzko, Russia’s agreement to take a full inventory of the facilities that were not included in Supplements 2 and 3. “After the inventory is completed, we will be deciding on the future of these facilities. There are two options: returning the facilities to Ukraine and compensating it for losses incurred since 1997, when they began to be used, or renewing the lease — naturally, on new conditions,” the first deputy minister said.

Ohryzko says there are also positive changes in the process of inventorying land. The Russian side will formalize 131 packages of documents for a certain number of land plots by Dec. 31. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian side will present the rest of the documents in order to finish taking stock of land as soon as possible. This is an important agreement, Ohryzko thinks, because unless this inventory is done, it will be difficult to take the next step — taking stock of the facilities located on this land. He also admitted that “someone on the Russian side would like to replace this real inventory process with a paper one.”

The Ukrainian diplomat announced that Kyiv has begun to register Black Sea Fleet servicemen who reside outside military installations. The question of dual citizenship for all individuals associated with the Russian BSF is expected to be resolved in the nearest future.

The Russian side has begun to take a more serious approach to environmental protection. “At the very beginning only 30 percent of the relevant laws and bylaws were enforced. Now the figure is 58 percent. Our environmentalists note a positive trend here, and the impression is that our Russian counterparts are aware that there is no alternative,” Ohryzko pointed out.

PROBLEMS

The first deputy minister says there are problems with the jurisdiction and legal status of Russian formations on the territory of Ukraine. According to Article 6 of the Agreement on the Status of the Black Sea Fleet, military formations must respect the sovereignty of Ukraine, obey its laws, and refrain from interfering in Ukraine’s internal affairs. Still unresolved is the question of the Russian Federation’s official insignia in the Crimea.

Under national and international laws, only a few military installations, like the Black Sea Fleet Headquarters, can display this kind of insignia. Ohryzko says that solving this problem has been deferred until January 2007, when the sub- commission holds another session.

It was also agreed that the Russian side would finish demarcating the boundaries of military installations in accordance with existing maps and plans. The Russian side promised to settle these differences and properly establish the boundaries of its military facilities in the nearest future. Each installation will display a sign stating that this is a military unit and a facility that temporary belongs to the Russian Federation.

Ohryzko frankly admitted that the Ukrainian side is disappointed with the draft agreement on hydrographic provisions for maritime safety, which the Russian side has unofficially submitted. “It was proposed that we take information from the Russian Black Sea Fleet that may be useful to us, but they took absolutely no account of the Ukrainian side’s legitimate interests, which we have repeatedly been discussing and insisting on,” the first deputy minister noted.

According to Ohryzko, Ukraine has submitted its own draft consisting of five main items. First, the Ukrainian side should establish its undivided juridical ownership over all the hydrographic facilities. Second, separate agreements should set out the procedure governing the joint utilization of five installations, as stated in the basic agreements. Third, a pattern of payments should be set up for the joint use of these five installations. Fourth, Russia should provide compensation for the losses suffered by Ukraine as a result of the one-sided management of our facilities. Following this, we set the procedure of the utilization of the Black Sea and Azov Sea hydrographic maritime facilities by both sides according to the basic agreements. Incidentally, there has been no progress on this point. But initially there was no progress on the inventory issue either.

Owing to radically different viewpoints on the fleet’s military activities, there is practically no headway in signing an agreement on the BSF’s missions in a crisis situation and inspecting military equipment and armaments. “We insist that sophisticated weapons are not subject to replacement because the agreement unequivocally states that only one-type and one- class armaments can be replaced. We assume that a simplified procedure of border crossing by warships only applies to vessels stationed on our territory and has nothing to do with the Russian navy’s other bases. We therefore demand that the Russian side draw up a clear-cut list of water craft stationed on the territory of Ukraine. We insist that the security of one side should not impair the security of the other side,” Ohryzko noted.

LEVERAGE

The first deputy foreign minister named a set of instruments that Ukraine can use in response to Russia’s failure to meet its commitments. One of them is to temporarily ban the activities of certain facilities or cut power and water supply to them.

A number of measures directly concern the BDF’s military capability. According to Ohryzko, the simplified border-crossing procedure for the fleet’s Sevastopil- based ships may or may not be observed. There is also a very clear provision that regulates the movement of BSF servicemen on the territory of Ukraine. “There are many different levers that the Russian side is perfectly aware of. But I am saying again that our position is to avoid any aggravation of the situation. So we would like to refrain from applying the instruments at our disposal. We have enough levers to influence the Russian side as far as the BSF is concerned - in military-political, military-technical, and legal aspects rather than economic ones, etc.. In addition, there are things that are mentioned in the agreements but not clearly spelled out,” the Ukrainian diplomat pointed out.

Asked by The Day if our side can raise the question of increasing the leasing fee well before 2017, considering that the gas deal and the lease were once linked in a way, Ohryzko said: “These matters are undeniably linked, so when we receive the complete information, experts will be making decisions in the context of all these problems. Therefore, we do not have to rush but go step by step and make decisions that will meet our national interests.”

Time will show whether Ukraine will really be able to use its leverage against the Russian side in order take the first important step, i.e., inventorying. As for raising the leasing fee for the presence of the BSF in the Crimea, Kyiv has already had a negative experience. Earlier this year then National Security and Defense Council Secretary Anatolii Kinakh said that the annual fee could be upped from $97 million to $1.8 billion.