Breaking the ice

It looks as if the ice has started to break in German-Polish relations. The rapprochement is happening both on the state level and between the leaders of Germany and Poland. This is attested by the one-day visit to Berlin of Poland’s Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczinski and his negotiations with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. The Polish prime minister called this meeting a “good experience” and expressed the hope that these negotiations will “help build good relations between their countries and governments and possibly even personal relationships.”

Relations between the two countries became strained after German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, without consulting Warsaw, signed an agreement with Russia on the northern gas pipeline that would bypass the Baltic countries and Poland. During his negotiations with Merkel, Kaczinski emphasized again that his country is against the northern gas pipeline.

“Poland cannot allow a situation to emerge in which neighboring states can put pressure on a country by means of energy carriers,” the BBC quotes the Polish prime minister as saying. Merkel assured him that Germany would not allow Poland to remain without gas. According to her, Poland has the right to access the European gas market and may obtain gas from Western countries in the event of a crisis.

During the negotiations in Berlin, Kaczinski also raised the question of double standards in the EU’s attitude to Poland and Russia. In particular, he commented that Warsaw is being criticized for banning a gay parade in Warsaw. However, he has not heard any reaction from the EU concerning the events taking place in Russia. In the Polish prime minister’s opinion, the EU should demand that Moscow abide by certain “European game rules.”

Poland’s prime minister insists that the EU’s doors be open for Ukraine. In his opinion, it would be good to determine a long-term prospect of Ukraine’s entry into the European community.

How is the Polish prime minister’s visit assessed in Poland? Is Warsaw capable of exerting influence on Berlin so that the prospect of EU membership is open for Ukraine during Germany’s presidency of the European Union?

COMMENTARY

Jakub BORATYNSKI, director of international programs at the Stefan Batory Foundation:

This visit has not led to any concrete results. It is important that the German chancellor has supported the European joint energy policy. Merkel promised that in the event of an energy crisis Europe will come to the aid of Poland and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe. I consider this a nice declaration. But the northern gas pipeline does not correspond to the principles of European policies.

Of course, Poland and Germany have a mutual interest in a more attractive and active policy of the EU vis-a-vis neighboring countries. There are many possibilities for cooperation in this direction. But Berlin and Warsaw’s positions differ with respect to the details of this question. Germany is a spokesman of the mood in the majority of EU countries that are unwilling to issue joint declarations about Ukraine’s European prospects. This was apparent at the latest EU-Ukraine summit in Helsinki. At the same time, there is a political will to develop cooperation between the EU and Ukraine on the political and economic levels.

As for Kaczinski’s statement that “the EU’s doors should be open for Ukraine,” all Polish politicians may repeat these same words. However, I don’t expect that during Germany’s EU presidency a breakthrough will occur in this question. At the same time I think that on the part of the EU there is a real wish to prepare a new agreement that would be as concrete as possible. Even in Germany they understand that in the conditions of European neighborhood there’s a lack of attractive elements for countries that want to join the European community.

I think that new countries influence the EU general policy to a certain degree. But I don’t expect any breakthrough in the next two or three years after the constitutional crisis in the EU. I think we are wrong when we call a statement in some declaration about EU membership being Ukraine’s final goal a breakthrough. When we discuss concrete matters, the most important thing is visa questions and access to European markets for Ukrainian goods. It is very important that domestic reforms take place in Ukraine. Right now nobody knows what the situation will be in Ukraine. That is why the EU has no other choice but to refrain from making declarations about membership prospects.

There are different risk elements. In particular, it is very bad if a referendum concerning NATO takes place in Ukraine, and if there is no progress in relations between the EU and Ukraine. As for Ukraine’s entry into the WTO, we expected that this would happen already this year or even last year. If this does not happen, it would be a very negative signal concerning the development of the situation in Ukraine.

Another, more positive, scenario is possible. Ukraine joins the WTO and in a year or 18 months concludes a new, broader agreement about cooperation between the EU and Ukraine. Then it may happen that Ukraine will unilaterally add a declaration about its intention to join the EU, which would be a very symbolic step.

Now the main thing for Ukraine’s interests is not the fact that someone today is offering prospects of membership. This is totally unrealistic. It is important for Ukraine that there be no negative discussions in Europe about the final EU borders. There are such voices in the European community, which are trying to define where the expansion should end.