“The convoy will help them to continue a war of aggression”

The fourth so-called “humanitarian convoy” from Russia reached the Donbas in late October without getting Ukraine’s permission first. As before, the Kremlin made no agreement on delivering humanitarian aid with the Ukrainian government and the Red Cross; this time, the shipment was comparatively small-scale. The column included just 100 trucks which brought over 1,000 tons of cargo. Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs commented on it by saying that the ministry had learned of the convoy “from the media.” Earlier, President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko said that Ukraine considered the Russian humanitarian convoys to be a part of “the military intervention in Ukraine,” for them arriving was usually followed by the pro-Russian separatists increasing their military activity and retaking some part of the territory they had lost.

The Day turned to Russian and Ukrainian experts for a comment on whether we should expect further aggression from Russia and the militants in the Donbas after arrival of another “humanitarian convoy.”

“RUSSIA CAN BE EXPECTED TO KEEP FIGHTING IN THE DONBAS ON”

Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, conflictologist, Doctor of Political Science, Professor at the Shevchenko National University of Kyiv:

“The convoy will help them to continue a war of aggression. It has brought logistic support to the elements of the Russian Armed Forces that are now fighting in the Donbas and delivered ammunition to the separatists. Under the guise of a humanitarian convoy, they carry out logistics work for the Russian Armed Forces and separatist militants on the Ukrainian soil. This convoy carried ammunition and other supplies needed for continued military operations against the Ukrainian Armed Forces and the National Guard of Ukraine.

“Satellite observations made by NATO powers, including the US, recorded movements of military vehicles and military cargoes. In order to avoid further charges of transporting troops to the warzone, the Russians are now doing it under the guise of convoys. Therefore, Russia can be expected to keep fighting in the Donbas on. They want to seize key communications, airports, transportation hubs, Mariupol as a strategic seaport and hub for further expansion of Russia’s military presence in the Donbas and reinforcing the militants by air, rail, and sea.

“Currently, the separatists are preparing to hold elections in the Donbas. Obviously, they will secure these illegal armed groups’ hold on the region and legalize them.

“Ukraine can only counter this by military means. Passive defense will lead to the legalization of the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics’ militants as local authorities, which will then be recognized as legitimate by the Russian Federation. It will give them grounds to hold a referendum, just as it was done in the Transnistria, Abkhazia, and South Ossetia. The Kremlin will determine what its results will be. Russia considers it important to ensure its continued military presence there and keep using the region as a base for destabilizing the situation in the neighboring regions of Ukraine.”

“THE KREMLIN CONSIDERS IT NECESSARY TO DEMONSTRATE ONCE AGAIN THAT UKRAINE HAS LOST CONTROL OVER PARTS OF ITS TERRITORY...”

Alexander GOLTS, military expert, editor-in-chief of Ezhednevny Zhurnal (ej.ru), Moscow:

“I do not think that this convoy will bring about any military actions or something like that. The Kremlin considers it necessary to demonstrate once again that Ukraine has lost control over parts of its territory in Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It is important for the Kremlin in the context of the recent election in Ukraine. In addition, the Minsk Agreements do not prohibit Russian humanitarian aid to Ukraine. As for Russia’s (non) compliance with the Minsk Agreements, the Kremlin maintains they were concluded between the separatists and the Ukrainian government. Accordingly, it sees Russia as not bound by any of these agreements in the slightest and not obliged to comply with them. The Kremlin’s position is that it is not a party to the conflict and it will take advantage of this argument should any claims against it emerge.

“I think that Vladimir Putin has achieved his goals for now. The self-declared republics are being established in Ukraine. It is more or less clear that any further expansion of military operations would need an even greater involvement of the Russian army. Putin does not want it, he wants to keep the Russian army involvement in the clashes in the south-east of Ukraine an open secret.

“Russian annexation of Luhansk and Donetsk regions is unlikely. The separatist-controlled areas of these regions are a suitcase without a handle, for Russia has no real use for them. Crimea was symbolically important. Should the Donbas stay outside the Russian state, Russia will be able to limit its subsidies to the region. Otherwise, it will be doomed to fully equip and feed these areas, populated by about two million people.”