A crack in the “Eurasian project”

Tension has developed between Russia and Kazakhstan. The two countries are unable to make a deal on the use of Baikonur Cosmodrome (space launch complex) for launching Russian satellites. Yet Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his Kazakh counterpart Erlan Idrisov have commented that there are just some routine matters that need to be discussed. In particular, the latter said “there is no scandal whatsoever.” But this sounds doubtful in the light of the further events.

First of all, it is converting the Kazakh language to Latin characters. There was no official reaction of Moscow to this, but the press of a certain political direction aggravated this question as much as possible. In principle, Roman characters are more suitable for Turkic languages. The decision to this effect was made by the first congress of Turkologists as long ago as 1927 in Baku. Turkey was the first country to make this conversion. In the USSR, for example, the Tatar language made use of the Latin alphabet until 1939. Then it was all changed to Cyrillic characters. Azerbaijan switched over to Roman letters in 2005. Now it is the turn of Kazakhstan. Taking into account that courts have forbidden the Turkic nations of Russia to switch to the Roman alphabet, many in Moscow view the decision of Kazakhstan, member of the Customs Union and other Eurasian associations, as a political act, even though Idrisov quoted at a press conference President Nursultan Nazarbayev as saying that converting the Kazakh language to the Latin alphabet does not mean that his country is changing its geopolitical interests. This may be the case, but still this left a bad taste in the mouth of some people in the neighboring country.

The Baikonur scandal broke out at the end of last December. The government of Kazakhstan resolved to reduce the number the agreed-upon launches of the Proton carrier rocket from 17 to 12. The ostensible reason is environmental pollution.

Environmental problems are undoubtedly involved here, but they are not the main obstacle. As Talgat Musabayev, a cosmonaut and chairman of Kazkosmos, told the lower chamber of parliament in December, the Baikonur leasing agreement, signed in 1994, had exhausted itself. President Nazarbayev assigned a task to draw up a new comprehensive treaty on the Baikonur launch complex. Russia currently pays an annual 115 million dollars for leasing Baikonur. Although the agreement is valid for 50 years, Astana has now decided to begin to revise it.

In response to restrictions on launching rockets from Baikonur, Russia’s ministry of foreign affairs issued an ultimatum to Kazakhstan. Interestingly, Lavrov called this a “routine exchange of notes.”

Russiathreatens to suspend cooperation in all the joint space vehicle projects if the government of Kazakhstan fails to revise its decision.

In spite of official denials, the confrontation has been gathering pace.

Kazakhstan’s oil and gas ministry has drawn up two versions of a governmental resolution. One calls for a total ban on importing high-octane gasoline and diesel fuel for six months and the other is about a “quantitative restriction” for the same period of time. The documents envisage granting the state-run KazMunaiGaz the status of operator for the oil products being imported from Russia.

There is now a shortage of oil products on Kazakhstan’s market due to the ongoing reconstruction of the largest oil refineries in Pavlodar and Chimkent. Over the past year, Kazakhstan has imported from Russia 1.3 million tons of oil products without having to pay the export duty as a Customs Union member. Yet, under an international agreement, Kazakhstan must in turn supply crude oil. Sauat Mynbayev, Kazakhstan’s Minister for Oil and Gas, told the ministry’s board that “Kazakhstan is to deliver 1.2-1.5 million tons of oil to Russia as compensation for the oil products imported in 2012 – naturally, we should pay, but the price of this oil is lower than the export price for the far abroad.” In his words, these conditions may cause budgetary revenues to shrink. As a result, Kazakhstan is going to increase the number of more lucrative tolling operations with China by dozens of times this year. Last year, 500-600 thousand tons of oil was processed there. Yet Mynbayev admitted that it was so far impossible to substitute for the total import from Russia.

If you analyze the emerged conflicts, you will see that not only financial and commercial, but also political problems stand behind them.

Aleksandr Kniazev, regional programs coordinator at the Russian Academy of Sciences’ Institute of Oriental Studies, believes that “gradual establishment of the Customs Union has brought into play various domestic forces in Kazakhstan, – from cross-border criminals to national patriots – which oppose integration. There are also a lot of the disgruntled in legal business, for their conditions of work do not fit in with new circumstances. The process of integration has had rather a painful effect on the social sphere. Nursultan Nazarbayev cannot but take these factors of counteraction into account. Hence are, in particular, a number of his statements that clearly run counter to the idea of Eurasian integration.”

Let us add to this a serious stratification in the Kazakhstan elite. It comprises not only pro-Russian, but also pro-Western and pro-Chinese groupings. The latter do not absolutely need a close integration with Russia. Kazakhstan is very rich in mineral resources and will always find a buyer. Moreover, the Chinese market is far larger and more profitable in many aspects. Add to this an increasing struggle for the country’s highest office, with due account of Nazarbayev’s age. Therefore, many in Astana are not exactly happy with the northern neighbor’s bear hugs – they would like to distance themselves a little – in the economic field, too.

It is at least too early to speak about a break between Russia and Kazakhstan, but the Customs Union is undergoing a serious test. As Aleksandr Sobyanin, head of the Cross-Border Cooperation Association, pointed out, “the root cause of differences is in mistrust and deception – both Russia and Kazakhstan are not honest enough to each other. It is hard to imagine that Moscow could take the risk of treating India or China in the same way.”

If Russia speaks to its closest ally in a dictatorial tone, it is quite easy to guess how it will speak to Ukraine if the latter joins the Customs Union. This is what those who favor Ukraine’s heedless movement in the eastern direction ought to give thought to.