Cuba to take a different road

Cuba, the second-last Leninist-Stalinist socialist paradise on earth, is in its death throes, with the all but dead economy desperately in need of modernization. This is something even the Castro brothers, still in power, are aware of.

As soon as Raul Castro took office he started talking about the need to reform. There being a difference between words and deeds, he found himself faced with countless internal and external problems, with his older brother remaining the main enemy of any reforms. Even though Fidel Castro had formally distanced himself from governance, he remained General Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba. On his website he theorized about the need to keep fighting American imperialism and defended Cuba’s command economy as a necessary aspect of this struggle. Fidel openly opposed Raul as the latter spoke about the necessity of reforms. This family squabble led to the postponing of the next Communist Party Congress, scheduled for 2008, without explanations. The obvious result of this confrontation was the slow but sure elbowing out of Fidel’s ranking companeros. This process took quite some time, but then it was decided to schedule the next congress for April 2011, although the Party Charter reads that these congresses must be convened every five years. The last one took place in 1997.

Raul Castro has consistently shown an interest in the Chinese experience of socialist economic transformation. He started by taking small steps, probably because his hands were tied. For example, Cubans were eventually allowed to buy mobile phones, computers, DVDs, pressure cookers, and Internet access, even thought the Cuban in the street would first step into a store selling such goods feeling as though s/he were exploring an exclusive exhibit. In a country with an average monthly salary being the equivalent of 12 to 20 dollars, all such gadgets looked out of this world. However, the situation changed before long — in first place owing to remittances from emigre relatives in the United States, the country that is constantly cursed and condemned all over Cuba.

Politics came next. In the summer of 2010, with intercession on the part of the Roman Catholic Church, 50 political prisoners were released under the condition that they leave the “Island of Freedom” forthwith (they were given political asylum in Spain). The Cuban government says there are no political prisoners left, although human rights champions insist there are actually 200 still being held in jail. That may well be the case, but it means that their time is still to come, and that their fate depends on Cuba’s home policy.

There are many ways to pretend you’re doing fine while feeling lousy, knowing that things will get worse. In the end, though, people will notice. Raul Castro had known that the situation in Cuba left much to be desired, mildly speaking, before he took over Fidel’s post. Yet when he did, the truth nevertheless shocked him. He discovered that there were factories and whole industries that were unmanned, that the accounting and progress reports submitted by practically all government-run structures weren’t worth even looking through — with all statistics falsified to please everyone “upstairs” — just a heap of sheets good enough for starting a hundred campfires. Raul further learned that his older brother had allowed a thoroughly corrupt system to envelop Cuba during the 50 years of his rule; that this system embraced all walks of life, all the way from top to bottom; that corruption was rampant on all levels (except the army, then under Raul Castro’s command), and that it had reached “critical proportions.” The vertical of dictatorial power existed only for the opponents but by no means impeded total corruption. On the contrary, it facilitated bribe-giving and taking, as well as embezzlement. There was nothing the controlling authorities and special services could do about this, simply because they were part of this system.

Something had to be done about the situation, and even Fidel Castro was aware of this. In an interview with The Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg (September 8, 2010), he said: “The Cuban model doesn’t even work for us anymore.” Two days later, CNN quoted him as saying at the University of Havana (a speech later broadcast on Cuban television) that he meant “exactly the opposite” of what was understood by Goldberg. He later said he had been quoted correctly, but that, “in reality, my answer meant exactly the opposite of what both American journalists interpreted regarding the Cuban model. My idea, as the whole world knows, is that the capitalist system no longer works for the United States or the world… How could such a system work for a socialist country like Cuba?” A ridiculous statement, considering the way the Cuban government would act afterward.

Cuba’s official periodical, Gaceta Oficial, publishes legislative acts and regulations binding on business activities within the country, including tax rates, penalties, samples of forms required for business paperwork. The current government plans to liquidate some 500,000 posts in the state-run institutions. Another half a million bureaucratic jobs will be lost in the next couple of years. About five million people are employed in the Cuban public/state sector, hence the need for reductions.

Ranking bureaucrats subject to these reductions can be offered other jobs within this sector or “find jobs in the non-public sector.” Those being relieved of their public sector posts are given government subsidies. Gaceta Oficial has a list of 178 lines of business Cubans can undertake, at their risk, including 83 that provide for manpower employment. Thousands of Cubans are standing in lines to the city councils to receive authorizations to start in business.

Such economic reforms will rest on a political foundation. “We have decided to hold the Sixth Congress of the Communist Party in the second half of April 2011; it will pass fundamental resolutions aimed at upgrading the economic model,” Raul Castro declared after meeting with the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Cuba’s leading official newspaper Granma carried the Guidelines of the Economic and Social Policy of the Party, including key ideological postulates reading that socialism is the sole principle of the new Cuban economic policy because only socialism can overcome the hardships and preserve the gains of the revolution. As it is, Cuba and its ruling Communist Party are in for a number of substantial changes.

First, the next congress will take place come what may, simply because the current situation in Cuba cannot last any longer. The new economic conditions demand an appropriate political response, the more so that the dismissal of so many functionaries and the de facto prohibition of ration cards will inevitably cause social tensions. A number of experts (Cuban ones included) feel rather skeptical about the forthcoming upgrading. Their attitude is summed up by the following statement: “The miserable private sector is incapable of employing all of those relieved of their posts/jobs. Cuba is in for a course of shock treatment that may well turn out worse than that sustained by Russia in 1992, considering that the majority of the Cuban population is below the poverty line.” Whether the party and the bureaucratic machine will cope with this problem is anyone’s guess.

Second, it is a short trip from Cuba to Florida, with its Cuban diaspora which hates the current Cuban regime. This diaspora’s economic and political influence on Cuba is bound to increase, which is a strong and dangerous challenge to the current regime. Until now this influence has been kept under control using clandestine agencies, but now this kind of control is bound to contradict the economic liberalization plans of the new class of owners which is being formed — it will be obliterated in the process.

Third, the Cuban political leadership is faced with the complex problem of continuity. The Cuban dissident [exiled – Ed.] author, Carlos Alberto Montaner, believes that his home country is entering a defidelization phase, which is very interesting, considering that Fidel is still alive, and that he is directly involved in this process. There is no way Cuba can copy the Chinese experience, because the Cuban ruling tandem doesn’t have the main resource: time. Fidel will be 84 in the summer of 2011, and his brother will be 79. Although Raul looks full of life, his regular abuse of 12-year-old Chivas Regal is having its effect on his system. In other words, top-level cadre changes are inevitable and the next Cuban Communist Party Congress will have to deal with this problem.