Deployment of the US missile defense system: pros and cons

Yevhen MARCHUK, former prime minister of Ukraine and ex-secretary of the National Security and Defense Council, was recently interviewed by Radio Liberty (www.radiosvoboda.ua)

Plans by the Czech Republic and Poland to deploy an American missile system have been met by a stormy reaction from Russia. Should Ukraine be worried by the American radars on the territory of Eastern Europe? Will they protect Ukraine or cause harm? And in what context should Ukraine consider this problem: the protection of national interests or the political skirmish between the US and Russia?

The problem is that Ukraine has to clarify for itself whether it will continue to be neutral or make real moves in the direction of Euro-Atlantic security. In the future similar trials and situations may crop up from the most unexpected side. As long as Ukraine only talks about possible Euro-Atlantic integration, we will always end up in the middle of two large blocs and in a situation that we will not be able to influence — we have no resource to influence it.

On the other hand, the consequences may be negative for us, and not just if, as the experts are saying, missiles coming from Iran to the US will be hypothetically intercepted and shot down over Ukrainian territory. This is the fatal end version of this problem. And there are problems that are even closer to home today, because...

What kind of problems?

Above all, if Russia fulfills its declarations about abandoning the agreement on medium— and short-range missiles, and starts to produce them and deploy them on its borders, and Belarus is a member of the common security agreement, the question of deploying these missiles in Belarus may arise, and this country is our neighbor. In response, one may expect the further deployment of the same medium— and short-range missiles in Europe, and all this will be on two sides of Ukraine. This is the fundamentally military-technical side. The other one is military-political. Either Russia or the US will be waiting for Ukraine to determine its position, perhaps not right away.

What do you mean by “position”?

I mean Euro-Atlantic integration. In the last 1.5 to 2 years Ukraine has been slow in taking real actions toward Euro-Atlantic integration. The main documents and concrete practical steps were made before the Orange Revolution: the Law “On the Basic Issues of National Security” and another normative base.

Now the situation has regressed. This is connected to many reasons, among them those linked to one of the leading political parties, the Party of Regions, which practically stated even during the elections, and now, that it does not support Euro-Atlantic integration. Today this party is having a real impact on public opinion and the way our potential partners in Euro-Atlantic integration perceive us.

Speaking in more simple terms, not only are we late, but NATO members are looking at Ukraine with great doubt.

How should Ukraine act in a coordinated fashion? Where should the point of coordination on this issue lie between the president and the prime minister of Ukraine at the present stage?

At the present stage, I guess, one should first of all coordinate understanding of our place in the world and evolution within the sphere of European and world security. When people talk about what we should do, I ask: we — who — the Party of Regions or Our Ukraine, both of which have a different vision of Ukraine’s evolution within the systems of European common security? That is why, above all, we should occupy a single position on Ukraine’s place within the system of European security at home.

Is this possible?

Yes, perhaps. But we should not wait around until there is no way out of the situation.