Greek maneuvers

After center-left SYRIZA came to power in Greece, many experts started to express concern about the new government’s policies and the party populism’s potential to fracture the unity of the EU. This is very important for Ukraine, because all decisions in the European community are made by consensus. That is, any country can decide the fate of the new sanctions against Russia which has annexed Crimea and is waging a war in the east of Ukraine.

Accordingly, just a few days after the new government’s formation, Minister for Foreign Affairs of Greece Nikos Kotzias said during a visit to Moscow that a growing number of EU countries were “unhappy with the sanctions against Russia.” Kotzias did not elaborate which countries he meant, stressing instead that the EU needed to look for “other solutions,” while Greece was ready to become a “mediator” between the Kremlin and the EU leadership. Russia, he said, was ready to provide financial assistance to Greece...

The question we are facing now is: “How serious is Greece’s threat to destroy the nine-month-old EU unity on the sanctions against Russia?”

According to deputy director of the Institute of World Politics Serhii Solodky, Greece “is trying to obtain more trump cards in its play aimed at renegotiating credit obligations” in this way. “The Russian card is used as a kind of argument to induce Germany to favorably treat the prospect of renegotiating debts and austerity measures that were imposed on Greece five years ago,” Solodky maintained. Let us recall that the foreign debt of Greece amounts to 315 billion euros, or 176 percent of its GDP.

“There is an understanding out there that Greece can sympathize with Russia to no end, express its outrage at the sanctions policy, but it will not act, because Germany has sufficient leverage over it. One phone call from Angela Merkel to the Greek leadership will be enough for it to change its position,” Solodky added.

Meanwhile, in his opinion, Greece is “too light-weight” to oppose major EU countries. The expert cited the country’s high dependence on financial aid and its debt obligations as reasons that prevented it pursuing an independent course and, especially, “undermining the unity of the EU on the Russian aggression issue.”

“Meanwhile, more EU countries may use the short-sighted Greek rhetoric. I mean Italy, Hungary, Cyprus and some other countries which are susceptible to the Kremlin’s blackmail, or ‘bribes.’ Greece may cause a domino effect and others may say: ‘Look, Greece is trying to block the extension of sanctions against Russia, we have no consensus, and therefore, let us not raise this issue.’ This risk does exist. Since it started its aggression in Ukraine, Russia has made every effort to apply the principle of ‘divide and rule,’” Solodky continued.

He also reminded us that the Kremlin tried to play on the Greek factor back in spring 2014. “Russia’s top leaders met Alexis Tsipras, who is the prime minister now. One can also recall the Russian leaders’ meeting with representatives of the French National Front. Russia has kept playing on the EU’s destructive political forces ever since,” Solodky maintained.

 The Day’s expert also stressed that Ukraine should “take this circumstance into account and be more active. We must explain our stance to citizens of countries where governments are short-sighted, show them the costs of lifting sanctions against Russia. We must explain that our crisis harms not just Ukraine, but the whole continent,” Solodky summed up.

Director of the Center for International and European Studies at Kadir Has University Dimitrios Triantaphyllou told The Day that the Greek society understood that it had elected a populist government. “The Greek government is painting itself domestically as a battle-ready David courageously facing the huge monster Goliath, that is, the uncompromising Germany. This works well with a tired and aggressive electorate, but it cannot last, and pragmatism should win, because most Greeks can understand that the country’s exit from the euro zone will lead to its further marginalization,” Triantaphyllou noted.

Meanwhile, in his opinion, Greece may abandon austerity if the Tsipras government “finds the funds needed to pay its current debts.” The expert believes that Greece will reach a compromise with Brussels and Greeks will “adopt a program that will focus on the reforms.”

“On the issue of the Russian sanctions, I do not think that the position of the current Greek government is really any different from that of other European governments (including Germany), given that they oppose tougher sanctions as well. It should be said, though, that the risk of resentment and division that exists in the part of Greece that loudly declares that it represents a proud, independent country that will not allow anyone to put a straitjacket on it, could create further problems for the already strained consensus on some key issues of international politics,” Triantaphyllou added.

However, when asked to comment on Greece’s statements that Germany owed it reparations for the World War II damages, Triantaphyllou replied: “The problem here is populism and the need to find an enemy to explain their challenges. Like many other small nations, the Greeks sometimes are carried away by accusing some dark forces who do not wish them well and treat them unfairly, thus explaining the many challenges that face the country.” According to him, the reparations demand is also portrayed “as a continuation of the independence war waged by the Greeks to get rid of the Nazis. Still, the way they present their reparations demand now is at best questionable. On the other hand, the government is powerful enough to arouse strong feelings or calm the public on this issue,” Triantaphyllou noted.