Obvious Improbabilities
Today Kyiv is witnessing an event likely to become a turning point in modern Ukrainian history, the beginning of the final transformation of a mentality born of the trench logic of the bloc confrontation period of the Cold War. Kyiv is hosting a Ukraine-NATO summit involving the alliance’s leadership. Remarkably, there has been no protest from Russia. Moreover, this summit is taking place against the background of fateful decisions in Ukrainian-Russian relations over the past several months.
This is the first incredibility for all those supporting the hoary trench logic. The second one is that NATO has not only abstained from encouraging Ukraine to become its member but expressly warns that to achieve such membership it has a long and hard way to go. We in Ukraine must make arrangements and be fully aware of what course we will take for NATO to take an interest in us. So far, we are the ugly duckling.
Incredibility number three is that there is no longer any threat to European security where the paths of NATO and non-NATO countries cross. On the contrary, we are witness to a belt of stability being formed here. Also, Ukraine bordering on NATO countries (Poland, Hungary) is much safer than on non-NATO ones.
Incredibility number four is Russia. A full-fledged NATO mission opened in Moscow recently. Ukraine so far accommodates a small liaison office. Russia signed an agreement with NATO in Rome, concerning cooperation and forming G-20. The Russian political leadership took Ukraine’s decision of May 23 calmly.
Incredibility number five is that we do not join NATO, because they will not admit us. We have only announced that we want to become like NATO countries in terms of national development and living standards. If we want our people to be protected the way the people in the NATO countries are, we must ask them to allow us to be on the team.
People there have experienced no confrontations for more than fifty years. Of course, this requires a preparatory period, and there is no coincidence in the fact we will have to go through a graduate school for a year or two in accordance with a special curriculum and pass a number of exams, as do all aspiring countries, after making up their mind to join the alliance.
Incredibility number six is that after we talk 19 heads of state (the current requirement, while previously it would take at least 25 NATO members) into letting us join the team and signing the required documents, we will have to persuade 25 parliaments to pass Ukrainian membership resolutions. After that we will have to sign several special agreements with NATO and push them through our own parliament. The illusion that NATO is Brussels where they lure countries into NATO membership and then approve it is an illusion of black-and-white logic.
Incredibility number seven is that as it is, far from all NATO countries support the idea of even allowing us to take that graduate course. This is for various reasons, but it remains a fact. Guaranteed collective security and defense are great values these days, for this provides a hundred percent guarantee of security, but it costs a great deal. As for the rights of a NATO member country, we will master them quickly; they have no doubts that we will, but obligations is a different story, because they are not only financial, and we will have to prove that we understand and will comply with them on very many occasions with practical deeds.
Incredibility number eight is that we have perhaps the largest armed forces among the Eastern European countries and surely the largest among those in Eastern and Central Europe. Yet they are the smallest compared to the united military potential of NATO (now or anytime in the future) and that of the Collective Security Treaty (CST) states led by Russia.
After Slovakia and Romania join NATO (they soon will) we will find ourselves between two military- political nuclear blocs: NATO and the CST. Perhaps Moldova will be in the same boat with us. We could continue to rely on our armed forces, by torturing our budget and the military with constant underfinancing for years on end.
However, a different world will continue to evolve around us, more pragmatic and effective, a world of collective security and defense.
Incredibility number nine is that we might well be refused NATO membership. If we make to our graduate school and stay the course until we get our degree (this will all depend on our own efforts), NATO will then have 25-30 countries, meaning almost all of Europe. Without doubt, NATO will have undergone serious transformations by then. It is quite safe to assume that NATO will have made the admission procedures considerably more complicated, as was the case in 1999, by introducing its so- called special membership program. The said complications will mostly relate to the political, economic, information, and legal aspects of the rule of law and observance of human rights. These standards will be extremely high. Will we be prepared for such changes? Will we catch up with this process in Europe? If so, when?
Finally, perhaps the most acceptable approach for a mentality stemming from centuries of statelessness is to stay put and harbor no aspirations whatever, relying on history to take its course. For doing otherwise is so very difficult.
We could try to justify this approach by referring to Switzerland or Austria, and try to implant the idea in people’s minds. However, all the above incredible things are for those bent on thinking in terms of hindsight. Fortunately, there are not many of them and their number is decreasing. Most Ukrainians taking part in state construction accept the new logic of the third millennium. The unbelievable things mentioned are components of the realities of the new world to which Ukraine must adjust itself.
A new round of painstaking expert work is underway in Kyiv, jointly with NATO colleagues: an analysis of five years of Ukraine-NATO cooperation under the special partnership charter; an analysis of new realities in Europe, NATO, and Ukraine; an analysis of Ukrainian ambitions. What will we have to offer in Prague? What can we expect in return? Which of nineteen NATO member states will support us and how?
Most importantly, we must do our homework as best we can and in depth.
The scope and complexity of the problems we will have to solve at this stage are incredibly vast and heavy. Will and determination must be the daily companions of all those undertaking this task. There will be skeptics and slanderers, those who whisper and those who shout. But we must neither look back nor stop.
In coping with the task nothing will be of minor importance. We will have to take advantage of every situation: the Ukraine-NATO summit in Kyiv, and the Bridge to Prague of the Vilnius Ten on July 5-6 in Riga. The support accorded Ukraine in the Riga declaration signed by ten European candidate states greeting Ukraine’s participation in that summit are part of our future success. We have the support of ten future NATO members.
Titanic effort will have to be made with regard to Russia. Our road to European structures, including NATO, will be a reality only if Russia offers no resistance. This is an axiom. Quite the contrary, our relationship with Russia must be constantly improved. This paradigm is hard to perceive at a common mental level for the time being. Yet it can and must be done. The main thing is not to become frightened by the hardships and scope of what has to be accomplished as well as to constantly bear in mind that our objective is to provide more reliable and lasting guarantees of our national security. We will learn to live in a highly competitive world. We have all the prerequisites.
And we must create complete security for Ukraine. We are responsible for the future of Ukraine.
