Why is the Ukrainian government failing to win any victories?

“If Vladimir Putin will continue to fight a 3rd generation war, limited to ground combat, Ukraine will be able to contain it on our own, even under conditions of a very powerful artillery support from Russia. However, it has become possible after the Minsk II accords that Putin will resort to more serious weapons, like aircraft of the 4++ generation and helicopters of the 4+ generation. In this case, the Ukrainian military will have little to oppose the invasion with, especially so because night combat is still a challenge for it.

American experts who visit Ukraine complain that our government is asking for American support, but acts in a linear mode itself, only slowly reacting to changes in the situation. For instance, we could have purchased thermal imagers in other countries, including Singapore, or established a joint production facility with a European country. Besides, a massive modernization of our Mi-24 helicopters has not started yet that would enable them to fly night missions and fire missiles developed in Kyiv. Ukraine being slow to make decisions and implement them is very annoying for its Western allies. They repeat these reproachful words: “You are asking for help, but are slow to help yourselves.” Perhaps the Ukrainian government is permanently short of time needed to address challenges in these sectors. We would say then that if the government is preparing diplomatic measures and combinations, it should not leave military leverage out of the picture. It is recognized that there is no purely military solution to this conflict, but it seems that the war cannot be stopped without one as well. Therefore, we need a combination of actions, including diplomacy, new sanctions, and improvement of the military situation of the Ukrainian government. This was one of the main challenges in Minsk, for European leaders’ actions have proven that Europe finds it very difficult to agree on further sanctions against Russia, as they hit most European countries hard too. It must be understood and it should strengthen our commitment to the military sphere.

After the Minsk II, the Western rhetoric about Putin has become stronger. However, there is a long way from rhetoric to actions. I predict that Europe will strengthen and unite its efforts, because both it and Putin are moving in that direction. Still, the breakthrough will happen only when the US will provide weapons as the first power to do so. Timing is a problem. Of course, we will get lethal weapons one day, systems that do direct damage to the enemy. I fear, however, that this can happen too late, when the country will be already exhausted. Therefore, we must combine increased diplomatic activity and a demonstration that the government is actively strengthening the nation’s defense. A key point is the problem of protecting military personnel. One cannot rely exclusively on patriotism and the duty to defend the country. We must make a systematic effort to create a new army, where personnel will be protected, and excessive losses that occurred prior to the Minsk negotiations will stop. These losses exhaust the people’s morale and serve as a psychological weapon for Putin against Ukraine. To overcome this, we need to enhance the protection of personnel, allowing the top command to show that it values its soldiers. We had a lot of cases that indicated the top command’s disregard for human life.”