Will Moldova be first to unthaw the conflict?

The Transdnistrian problem can be resolved soon, said Vassili Shova, Minister of Reintegration of Moldova. Recently he told the media: “Moldova may become the first country in the post-Soviet space to solve this frozen conflict. The Moldovan government must continue trying to solve the Transdnistrian issue, and the participants in the negotiations must try to convince Russia that there is no sense in keeping this conflict brewing.”

The Moldovan minister made this statement based on the findings of the International Commission “Resolving a Frozen Conflict: Legal Aspects of the Separatist Crisis in Moldova.” During the conference the New York State Lawyers’ Association presented its study, which offers a lawful solution to the Transdnistrian conflict. The US lawyers examined more than 20 countries where conflicts exist, and they believe their findings may help Moldova.

Will their study offer an effective solution to the 15-year-old Transdnistrian conflict? How will another referendum scheduled by the Transdnistrian administration for Sept. 17 affect the Transdnistrian settlement? One of the conference participants shares his impressions with The Day.

COMMENTARY

Dr. Viorel CEBOTARU, program director of the Institute for Public Policy, Moldova:

This document offers very clear-cut and methodologically tested solutions to a number of problems connected to the negotiating process aimed at settling the Transdnistrian conflict. This paper offers solutions to concrete issues relating the reintegration of the Republic of Moldova into the framework of stable international practice, in a format that is presented by international organizations and international law. There are answers to questions relating to the interpretation of ownership rights in situations where Moldova refuses to recognize a number of the privatization processes that have taken place in Transdnistria.

This document offers clear and straightforward answers from the standpoint of international law, but without offering any recommendations. A referendum in Transdnistria can only lead to the postponement of a settlement to this conflict. After all, in the case of the Transdnistrian conflict, we are not confronted by complex ethnic, religious, political, and economic problems that are present in other conflicts. What we have here is Russia’s artificial support of the status quo of this frozen conflict.

As for prospects of solving the Transdnistrian conflict, I personally do not expect quick and effective events, even though the situation fundamentally changed after Romania joined NATO. The Republic of Moldova is a close neighbor not only of NATO but also the European Union. A prevailing view of the roots of this conflict has taken shape in Moldova, and how it should be treated and resolved.

One wonders when this view will prevail throughout Transdnistria. Here one must reckon with two factors: the regime and the population. The regime consists of 70-80 individuals, who were sent by the KGB and CC CPSU from the Baltic republics in 1989-1991, and they are in power today. Gradually this regime became criminalized. We clearly distinguish between this group of people and the population, which exists in a situation of information hunger, intensified by daily propaganda.