Half a trillion to reset the EU

Recently both Kyiv and Berlin have displayed an increasing interest in bilateral relations. Moreover, and most importantly, great opportunities for cooperation between the two countries opened up. With these words Aliona Hetmanchuk, director of the Institute of World Policy (IWP), opened a public debate “Ukraine – Germany: Transforming situational partnership into priority,” initiated by the IWP within the framework of the project “Foreign Policy Audit.” She also emphasized that these relations are now going through a sort of trial period and will depend on how thoroughly Ukrainian leadership will stick to the rules and fulfill its obligations concerning reforms and the Minsk accords.

Besides, Hetmanchuk expressed a wish for the Ukraine-Germany relations to be a hostage of the reforms, and not of the Minsk deal. That is why she believes it is important to fill reforms with content and look for guidelines for cooperation. She also expressed the hope that Germany, currently presiding over the OSCE, will become a leader in obtaining a police mission mandate for border control and for holding the elections on the occupied Ukrainian territories.

“We are interested in Germany as Europe’s key moderator, preserving its function as the guarantor of the EU sanctions and granting Ukraine a visa-free regime. Germany is the only heavyweight player capable of defending the Ukrainian standpoint regardless of the direction the Minsk process might take,” remarked Hetmanchuk.

Further, deputy director of the Institute of World Policy Serhii Solodky focused on recommendations as to how situational partnership could be transformed into priority one.

First, he believes that it is important to expand dialog on various levels, rather than limit it to the summit, because it looks as though the president has monopolized the dialog between Kyiv and Berlin.

Second, it is necessary to consolidate the parliament-to-parliament dialog, since the Bundestag plays an important part in decision-making. It is crucial to bolster the interest towards Ukraine and facilitate the MPs’ wider engagement with Ukraine.

Third, to intensify the development of a common interaction strategy. It could be based on the document passed by the CDU/CSU on October 1, 2015, which states that supporting Ukraine is vital for Germany and the EU. Moreover, the cost of reforms in Ukraine was assessed at 100 billion euros.

Fourth, sharing the German know-how in the formation of civic society and the integration of the former GDR could become yet another direction for further cooperation.

Fifth, it would be worthwhile to create a function of the commissioner for the partnership and development of relations with Germany.

Sixth, Germans are very sensitive to the matters of countering corruption and de-oligarchization.

Seventh, Ukraine must show the transparent expenditure of every cent provided by the EU (considering that one-fifth of the EU funds comes from Germany).

In his turn, deputy head of the mission of the German Embassy to Ukraine Wolfgang Bindseil emphasized that Ukraine is important for Germany due to its geography and history. “One cannot underestimate the importance of a stable, democratic, legal, and prosperous Ukraine for security in Europe. This will create a precedent for the countries which are still oppressed by the Soviet legacy,” stressed Bindseil.

According to him, Germany does not associate reforms and fighting corruption with the Minsk process; they depend on the adherence of Ukraine’s leadership to the European values. Europe simply holds its hand out to Ukraine and does not force anyone to fight corruption or implement the rule of law. For Ukraine, fighting corruption means survival. And Ukrainians must do it for their own sake, rather than to please Germany or the EU. It is difficult for outsiders to understand the recent government crisis, but we believe that after Euromaidan Ukraine must not waste its historic chance to break away from its past and stay on the path towards Europe.

Serhii Taruta, head of the group for inter-parliamentary relations with the Federative Republic of Germany, stressed in his speech that the term “situational partnership” was incorrect, because Ukraine’s strategic partnership with Germany started in March 2014, since when Berlin has been helping to overcome both the conflict in the east of Ukraine and economic difficulties.

Taruta believes that Ukraine’s image in German mass media must be created by the Ukrainian people, and no MPs can do this work instead. Besides, he emphasized the importance for Ukraine to send clear, consolidated messages. Here he cited the example of the Ukrainian top leadership’s political pledge to implement the Minsk accords, whereas the parliament is reluctant to do the same.

“We must clearly realize that Ukraine’s fate is in the hands of the Ukrainian people, not Western partners or decision-makers. None of us will create a better investment climate, and politicians cannot beg for investments saying that the country is poor and therefore needs investments,” said Taruta.

He also drew the audience’s attention to frequent speculations around war on corruption in Ukraine, while some politicians, otherwise useless, are very glib talkers when it comes to corruption. “Meanwhile, we need to change institutes, since corruption results from government’s inefficiency. There is no point in holding populist forums instead of concrete actions. For two years nothing prevented them from implementing reforms and carrying out substantial transformations in some or another industry or sector of economy. Changes are only felt in the interior ministry, whereas in other spheres they are really inadequate, given the challenges we are facing,” remarked Taruta.

He is convinced that no financial injections will help Ukraine, which is only amassing debt (in 2018, it will reach nearly 200 billion dollars). That is why he proposes to develop a “Marshall Plan” for Ukraine, with a complete overhaul of all institutes, otherwise no one will come to Ukraine.

“We need correct administering, trustworthy security for business, a trustworthy judicial system. Such a plan must be developed by the representatives of the real sector of economy. Such a plan is the only way to avoid further shocks, to stabilize the situation, so that in 5 to 10 years we might have a European, dynamic country. Among five most attractive countries with a great potential for investment Ukraine ranks first. And we believe that Ukraine is a springboard which can give an impetus for the development of European economy. Half a trillion (500 billion) dollars in investment would be enough for Europe to get a colossal reset of its economy,” stressed Taruta.