A chimeric plebiscite

A referendum on unity of Ukraine may be held as early as next month. The public opinion survey has been initiated by the National Security and Defense Council (NSDC), the Rada TV channel learned from MP, chairman of the special commission charged with drafting amendments to the constitution Ruslan Kniazevych. “As far as I understand, the NSDC instructed the Cabinet of Ministers to work out the appropriate changes,” he said. However, the press service of the NSDC did not confirm this information when asked, and stressed that it was necessary to wait for the official announcement.

Most likely, the nationwide popular vote to determine the most optimal form of government will be held in conjunction with the first or second round of the presidential election. The Party of Regions MP Mykola Levchenko said that it ought to be held on or before May 25, while the head of the Batkivshchyna party faction Serhii Soboliev said that it might be held on June 15. The final decision on the date of the referendum and whether it will be held at all rests with parliament.

An alternative has been offered by the representative of the Central Election Commission Andrii Mahera. He proposed a national advisory survey, which would take into account public opinion on important issues but avoid use of imperfect provisions of the referendum law. It is worth noting that the latter was repeatedly criticized by the erstwhile opposition, which makes up the government now.

It should be noted also that holding of such a referendum, whose main objective would be to determine how the fundamental constitutional issues should be resolved, runs contrary to the demands put on the Cabinet to work out a new basic law before the presidential election. If the results of the vote are to have no effect on the text of the constitution, questions arise whether holding the referendum makes any sense, as well on its effectiveness and impact.

COMMENTARY

Oleksandr CHERNENKO, chairman of the Committee of Voters of Ukraine:

“We are not against the referendum as a form of expressing people’s will. If there is a demand for it in a certain part of society, why not? However, for us, of course, the most important thing is the quality of its procedures. We have no right to call a referendum something similar to what happened in Crimea, where some weird commissions counted some weird ballot papers, achieving equally weird results, it all coming after just two weeks since the referendum had been announced.

“So if you initiate a referendum today, you need to consider a number of factors. Even under current law, which is very bad and in dire need of amending, no referendum can be held on May 25. Of course, you can change the law and bring the referendum forward to that date, but this is undesirable. Regarding June 15, this date is definitely better because the extra three weeks will allow for better preparations. However, we must change the law substantially and improve its procedures. If a second round is held on June 15, the law should have provisions for the case where a referendum is held simultaneously with a presidential election, saying which commissions shall determine the results, etc. I would prefer the referendum not being held on the election date, because it will hinder conducting the election and the referendum alike.

“It would be logical to listen to the proposal to hold a national advisory survey. The status of the Russian language, unitary or federal architecture of the state, etc., all should be put forward for the survey, which should then determine the Verkhovna Rada’s approach to certain changes. On the other hand, if we want to hold a direct action referendum, with its questions to be incorporated in the basic law, we will have to put complex formulas for the vote, which can be problematic for voters to understand. So, conducting a survey to determine the Verkhovna Rada’s approach to drafting a new constitution is the best course.

“As for the separatists, they see the referendum as just a pretext, a cover for their actions. They may not recognize the outcome of the referendum, saying that it would be rigged. If the referendum held in conjunction with the presidential election, it can solve the issue of blocking polling stations. However, this will not solve the problem overall, it will, at best, take the pressure off for a while in certain regions.”