Germany’s dual role

Recent events in the world – the debt crisis in Greece, Russia’s aggression in Donbas, Syrian crisis that triggered a tidal wave of refugees – have emphasized Germany’s role in the settlement of international conflicts. It was on Berlin-proposed terms and conditions that Greece agreed to sign the economic aid package. In Minsk, accords on the settlement of the Donbas conflict were reached in the Normandy format with Germany playing the leading part. Now, on the crest of the refugee wave, Berlin has once again come up with a positive initiative. The German political leadership, ranging from the chancellor to foreign minister to defense minister, reiterates that every individual has the right to find shelter in Europe and that this is an inalienable component of the European values. Berlin has undertaken to accommodate several hundred thousand refugees and proposes other European countries to set accommodation quotas, thus demonstrating the solidarity of the European community.

The above examples are proof that we now have a different Germany which is prepared to take responsibility for settling the problems we are faced with; to take part in the formation of a new world order. In fact, this was on the agenda of two conferences held toward the end of past week. In Potsdam it was the media conference M100 Sanssouci Colloquium “70 Years Potsdam Agreement: At a New Crossroads?” that involved journalists and editors of the leading European periodicals. In Berlin it was the international conference “The World Out Of Joint. Searching for New Certainties” of the “Denk ich an Deutschland” (When I Think of Germany) Series, organized by the Alfred Herrhausen Gesellschaft.

German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier addressed M100 Sanssouci Colloquium, saying that in 1945 the Potsdam Conference divided the world and blessed the division of Germany, that his country got reunited only in 1989, and that the issue of building a new world order arose in 2015: “After 1945 Germany was just an objective, but in 70 years, owing to the blessed development of this country, entry into NATO, and reunification, we have become an entity of the world order. Owing to our integration, global trade, and investment links, we are dependent on a peaceful international order. Germany that was the destroyer of the international order has become its creator, we are seeking political solutions to the conflicts in Libya and Ukraine. We are taking not only political, but also moral responsibility for restoring the international order.” Surprisingly, he also said that Ukraine could settle the conflict if both parties were brought to the bargaining table, considering that official Kyiv does not recognize the Russia-controlled DNR and LNR.

In regard to the refugees, Herr Steinmeier said that Europe should demonstrate solidarity and uphold the spirit of benevolence; that giving them shelter is one of the European values. He also warned that the desire to provide shelter should not turn out to be a failure, that this burden should be shared, however difficult the problem is. Addressing the media people, he stressed that they are playing a major role in resolving the refugee crisis, that they should report as well as analyze events, that such information would help the refugees move in the right direction.

In Berlin, Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen addressed the “Denk ich an Deutschland,” saying Europe should not forget its underpinning values, that one such value is giving shelter to refugees. She urged not to fear the influx of Syrian refugees in Germany – among other things because Steve Jobs was of Syrian parentage. She paraphrased lines from Heinrich Heine’s poem: one must chase fear out the door. “Many thought at first that Europe wouldn’t be able to cope with the debt crisis in Greece, but we could and we did,” she added.

How does Ukraine feel about Germany playing a major role in the effort to settle the Donbas crisis? How does Russia’s aggression affect trade between Ukraine and Germany? More on this in the following interview with Andrii MELNYK, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the Federal Republic of Germany (prior to this posting he spent five years as Ukrainian consul in Hamburg).

Why do German ranking officials avoid calling a spade a spade, describing Russia’s aggression in Donbas as the Ukraine crisis? That’s what Foreign Minister Steinmeier called it when presenting the M100 Prize in Potsdam.

“In fact, Herr Steinmeier is known to have used different formulas relating to the events in Donbas. One ought to bear in mind that Germany is playing a dual role. On the one hand, it is actually one of the intermediaries in the talks in Normandy format. In this capacity Berlin wants tangible results. This could be done by meeting Russia halfway. On the other hand, the Federal Republic of Germany, being a member of the European Union, is backing and promoting the policy of sanctions against the Kremlin. German formulas for what is happening in the east of Ukraine can be interpreted in many different ways, but believe me, the Germans know all about the situation, and this is particularly true of Herr Steinmeier who is deeply involved in the Minsk peace process. No matter what rhetoric he uses – when delivering a speech or in an interview – there is no denying the presence of a crisis, the need to do everything possible – from the standpoint of German diplomats    – to settle this crisis. Naturally, many in Ukraine regard this stand as insufficient. We discuss this with the German side on a daily basis. If we achieve peace, owing to the active role being played by Germany which is a party to the negotiating process, this will be far more important than the formulas Herr Steinmeier, the Chancellor or other ranking German officials may have used to outline the problem.”

SEPTEMBER 20, 2015. BERLIN. THE U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE JOHN KERRY AND FOREIGN MINISTER OF GERMANY FRANK-WALTER STEINMEIER DISCUSSED THE REFUGEE CRISIS. ACCORDING TO KERRY, THE U.S. WILL INCREASE THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WHO WILL BE ALLOWED TO ENTER THE COUNTRY AS REFUGEES TO 100,000 A YEAR STARTING IN 2017 / REUTERS photo

Then how are we supposed to interpret his allegation that both parties should be brought to the bargaining table? Doesn’t the German side see our stand in the matter? We cannot negotiate anything with illegitimate representatives of the region.

“I’ve never heard Herr Steinmeier or the German negotiating team urge Kyiv to join the bargaining table with the separatists. As a matter of fact, Russia has been constantly accusing Ukraine of having no dialog with those who, allegedly, de facto represent the two occupied oblasts, that this, allegedly, makes a peaceful settlement of the conflict impossible. That’s not true. This dialog has actually been underway for more than a year           – not directly, of course, but within the framework of the Trilateral Contact Group. Here the officials of the self-styled DNR and LNR can take part in the discussions and submit their proposals under the OSCE chair. This dialog has been very intensive. Its sole objective is a solution to the situation in the east of Ukraine.”

German ex-foreign minister Genscher addressed M100 Sanssouci saying that the dialog with Russia should be resumed, as should the meetings of the NATO-Russia Council. Quite some water has run under the bridge since the start of Russia’s aggression. This dialog has brought no results. Why doesn’t Germany consider other options of exerting influence on Russia?

“German political culture is aimed at seeking a dialog. The bitter historical experience of the past century serves to confirm this approach. Several generations grew in West and East Germany after WW II. For them the key motto was WAR NO MORE! And this referred to the Soviet Union (then to Russia) in the first place. That was a program for the generations to come. Germans, of course, are acting in accordance with this program. The Ostpolitik [normalization of relations between the Federal Republic of Germany (FRG, or West Germany) and Eastern Europe, particularly the German Democratic Republic (GDR, or East Germany) beginning in 1969. – Ed.] was further positive experience. This experience is still valid; there are many people in the modern political establishment who were directly involved in that historical process. This is innate German philosophy of reconciliation; one has to reckon with it. At the same time, the German political leadership believes that Putin made personal commitments as head of state when he agreed to sign the Minsk accords. Now it is absolutely clear that he has to implement these commitments. Berlin understands that sanctions are necessary to pressure Russia, but this does not preclude dialog, including on the part of the chancellor who is constantly in touch with the Russian president, for the sole purpose of persuading Putin to make the decisions expected from him.”

There are politicians and experts in Germany who are believed to actually understand Putin. Crimea was annexed more than a year and a half ago. We have ample graphic evidence of Russia’s military presence in Donbas. Has the number of Germans who realize what is going on – that it is an act of aggression on the part of Russia – increased?

“From my regular meetings with politicians, experts, and media people, I can tell that the number of the Putinversteher – those who are prepared to unquestioningly support whatever Putin’s propaganda says – has not increased this year. Even the staunchest supporters of Russia are awakening themselves to the consequences of war in the east of Ukraine. Regrettably, there are certain political forces – especially the leftist party – that take everything they hear from Moscow for granted. There are  such people even among the extreme rightists. God be praised, their influence on the federal level – and on public opinion – is limited. On the other hand, the number of Germans disillusioned with Russia’s aggressive actions, those who are openly scared by Putin, is increasing. My personal feeling is that Berlin would find it hard to get back to normal relationships with Moscow even if Russia changed its imperial policy toward Ukraine, even if peace were established in the east. In fact, my feeling is shared by German politicians, experts, and business people. They frankly say they cannot picture Germans rushing headlong into the reestablishment of contacts with Russia. There is such a thing as the loss of trust.”

In Germany, much is being expected from the upcoming session of the UN General Assembly, that it will find comprehensive solutions to the problems in Ukraine and Syria. Here in Ukraine we’re worried about the possibility of failure, that they won’t be able to settle the Donbas conflict, that they will try to please Putin so he can help solve the problem with Syria, considering the tidal wave of refugees in Europe. What do you think could be the basis of such a comprehensive solution on the part of Germany?

“Germany and other Western partners obviously find positive aspects to the solution to the Iranian issue. At the same time, there are loud and clear signals from Berlin that Putin should never expect any softening in the approach of the West to the Kremlin, in regard to the Ukrainian issue, not even if and when Russia starts playing a more constructive role in the resolving of the Syrian crisis. I believe these signals to be true. It is clear to many in Germany that there is a connection between the Russian aggression in the east [of Ukraine] and the crisis in Syria. Russia’s destructive role in both cases is clearly apparent. It sticks out like a sore thumb. The important thing for Ukraine is to remain a reliable and predictable partner, rather than worry about Syria; a partner that can be trusted to honor all international commitments, even if some of them are opposed by many in Ukraine. I think my country has been a partner largely worth doing business with, owing to its consistent line, never surrendering its strategic interests.”

What about the German media, their coverage of events in the east of Ukraine? Are they on the Ukrainian or Russian side?

“My experience (I’m constantly in touch with the German press, including regional periodicals that can be as influential as their federal counterparts and are traditionally trusted by their audiences) shows that most journalists know perfectly well what is happening in the east of Ukraine and realize Russia’s destructive role. I can tell that they feel for Ukraine. Of course, Ukraine can’t be constantly front-page news, what with the situation in Greece and the refugee crisis, but you can take my word for it: not a day passes without German media mentioning Ukraine in some or other context – war, refugees, reform. In my opinion, everybody understands what is happening in the east, sees the dirty hand of Moscow, and realizes that peace depends only on Putin, not on any of his puppets in Donbas.”

Are there social trends in Germany aimed at learning more about Ukraine, its history and culture?

“There is an unprecedented public interest in Ukraine and, naturally, a desire to better understand the historical context. A very interesting book about Ukraine was published quite recently. The author is Dr. Karl Schloegel, one of few experts on Ukrainian history. I have to admit that previously few in Germany and elsewhere in Europe took a serious interest in Ukraine. Anyway, the leitmotif is simple enough: the West must closely follow the developments in Kyiv because the destiny of Europe is being decided there. We are making every effort to introduce Ukrainian studies in German higher school curricula. I hope we will succeed because there is a glaring shortage of experts on Ukraine in Germany.”

Obviously efforts should also be made to help Germans understand that Ukraine suffered the worst during the World War Two, and that their feeling of guilt toward Russia is misplaced, considering the number of victims of the Nazis in Ukraine and Belarus. What do you think?

“By force of habit many tend to refer to Soviet Russia, actually meaning the Soviet Union, when discussing Nazi war crimes as Germany’s historic guilt. It is only now that Germans are beginning to realize that Ukraine suffered probably the worst during that war, considering that the entire territory was occupied by the Third Reich and was the scene of the severest battles. And the Holocaust. Eleven million Jews were subject to extermination, of whom some three million lived in Ukraine before the war. Yes, we have to make every effort to convey the historical truth to the German public and help them recognize the contribution the Ukrainian people made in defeating Nazism. This is an obvious priority. We have taken the first step. This summer we organized the photo exhibit ‘Ukraine Ablaze’ at the German-Russian Museum Berlin-Karlshorst. Of course, this is a long-term project. It may take several years or decades.”

Your predecessor discussed the idea of a Ukrainian Home in Germany. Is this idea still on the agenda?

“Project Ukrainian Home in Berlin is subject to approval on the highest level [in  Kyiv]. Of course, there are options for separate countries like Germany. Stronger Ukrainian presence, whether government-run or as a private initiative, is of the utmost importance. Personally I’d prefer a non-profit association relying on German experience, something like the Goethe-Institut, so we could finally establish a Shevchenko Institute with branches in the major capital cities, but centered in Berlin. The staff should be made up of professionals who would promote the Ukrainian cultural, language, and historical brands. I’m sure the central budget should make appropriations, even despite the war, because the objective is too important for my country.”

How has the war in Donbas affected business relationships between Ukraine and Germany?

“Germany remains our number-one business partner despite the war and crisis, in terms of investment and bilateral trade. Of course, moods in the German business community vary. German investments, unlike those from other countries, are mainly aimed at industries, actual production facilities, rather than the financial sector. Some [German] businesses that invested in industrial projects and had production facilities on territories that are temporarily out of Ukrainian control have sustained bad losses during the war. On the other hand, German business has helped Ukraine develop a powerful industrial segment, starting from scratch, that keeps the German car industry supplied with cable and heating systems. Despite the overall decline in trade in this dynamic field, there has been production and exports growth. Believe it or not, but Ukraine’s current supplies to Germany are mostly finished products, rather than raw materials, for mechanical engineering – more than one third, with another third being farming products, foods, and textiles.

“In October-November we’ll hold five business forums at chambers of commerce in the federal lands. On October 23 we will organize an investment conference in Berlin, the first of its kind in the history of national independence. It will be attended by the Chancellor of Germany and the Prime Minister of Ukraine, along with a good half of the administration. Its key objective will be to demonstrate to the German business community the unique opportunities Ukraine can offer despite the war.”

In Ukraine some ministerial posts are occupied by Georgians, an American, and a Lithuanian. I know that Estonia was among the first to join the eurozone and that its success is due to the presence of two Finnish deputy ministers at each ministry. Germany is a very important country, so perhaps the time has come to invite a German to become a member of the Ukrainian Cabinet? Then we would have German experience to help step up European integration and stronger support from Germany, wouldn’t we?

“I wouldn’t want to put my cards on the table, but today [this interview took place on September 18. – Author] I had a very important meeting with one top priority point on the agenda, namely the request that the German government delegate an experienced professional to Ukraine to hold an important executive position, to help upgrade one of the key sectors. Germany has a unique historical reunification experience, when a large number of West German experts were dispatched to ex-East German territories to help organize government, social, and party structures. That project proved a spectacular success. Obviously, inviting a foreign specialist is a decision that takes courage and understanding of the risks involved. I keep telling our German partners that such risks are much lower compared to the benefits Ukraine may receive.”

What do you think is your main task in Germany?

“Supporting the peace process in Berlin because it is the highest priority for Ukraine. Second, persuading German business to make bigger investments in Ukraine. Third, information, promoting Ukrainian themes in the German media, keeping businessmen interested in Ukraine.”

BLITZ INTERVIEW 

Elmar BROK, member of the European Parliament (Germany)

What should Germany, the West in general, do to make Putin stop aggression in the east of Ukraine?

“Keep imposing sanctions as a way to pressure [Russia] into implementing the Minsk agreements. This week we decided to continue the sanctions, so they are still valid. We will see before January whether Russia has complied with the terms and conditions so the sanctions can be lifted.”

Are there options of pressuring Putin into returning the illegally annexed Crimea?

“There is a clear-cut resolution to the effect that the Minsk agreements have to do with the sanctions. These sanctions were our response to the annexation of Crimea. Additional sanctions were imposed in response to the events in the east of Ukraine. Let’s wait and see what happens there. Another meeting in Normandy format is scheduled for October. It is being prepared by the foreign ministers. I feel sure that this issue will be discussed by the UN General Assembly.”

German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen visited Iraq. We know that your country is supplying armaments to the Kurds fighting ISIS while refusing to supply defense weapons to Ukraine. Why the double standard?

“There is none. We agreed that the Minsk accords would be the key to the solution to the Donbas problem. If we started supplying weapons, this would ruin the Minsk agreements and the opportunity to settle the situation in Donbas. This is the only option. The Minsk agreements have been effective so far. We now have a ceasefire. It is fragile, but still there. It is a sign of success. Whether the Minsk agreements prove successful remains to be seen. We expect the elections in that region to take place simultaneously with those in the rest of Ukraine. This might be an important step forward – as was official Kyiv’s decision to decentralize. Let’s wait and see. Let’s be patient and keep working to help achieve a [good] result.”