The governing coalition on the fence

Looking at most recent opinion polls, only 9 percent of Ukrainians approve the way Verkhovna Rada is handling its job, while 84 percent disapprove of it. This is precisely the marker that indicates the public mood and the true reform status of our country. Members of the early VR convocations who agreed to talk to the author declared in one voice that the current parliament’s personal composition was among least-qualified in the whole history of independent Ukraine. Why did it happen?

 It would seem that the post-Euromaidan Verkhovna Rada has to do a qualitatively better job, especially since there are many new faces in there. However, they have failed to organize themselves into one political force, even though The Day was among those calling on public figures and young politicians to do so as early as during the Euromaidan (we held numerous roundtables on the issue at our office). Therefore, old calculations, rules, and politicians have absorbed “new” ones.

 We saw a positive signal of sorts after the early parliamentary election of 2014 when a broad coalition was created which included all the democratic forces. They even signed a coalition agreement, which defined the timetable and ways of reforming the country. However, implementation of this agreement ran into troubles very soon. By now, the signatories seem to no longer remember it. Oleh Liashko’s Radical Party has even withdrawn from the coalition altogether.

 A good indicator of the current coalition’s state is voting dynamics in the parliament. In many instances, we see that forces of the governing coalition (the Petro Poroshenko Bloc, People’s Front) turn to former members of the Party of Regions (the Opposition Bloc) when they need to make up for a shortfall of coalition votes. Of course, such votes come with strings attached. The latest example was the vote on Valentyn Zaichuk’s dismissal as the Verkhovna Rada’s chief of staff. This was achieved only in the fifth attempt and after consultations which saw the Opposition Bloc voting in favor of the motion.

 The existence of a “broad coalition,” similar to that once envisioned by the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc and Viktor Yanukovych’s Party of Regions, is becoming more obvious by the day. In such circumstances, it is, of course, impossible to expect any public trust in the parliament remaining. Instead of being brought to justice, some former members of the Party of Regions are effectively entering an alliance with the government. They act like the Maidan protests never happened. Even if it fits into the calculations of politicians, it certainly runs against the national interest.

 Our broader assessment is that Ukraine is clearly entering into a well-defined confrontation between forces which we would call “the party of collaboration” and “the party of resistance.” It pits those who wasted the reform opportunities, are part of the Kuchma-Yanukovych system, and trade with the aggressor against those defending national interests on all fronts, but mostly shut out of the government. It is in this vein that the main conflict will continue.