Kremlin receives the last warning

It seems that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin failed to impose his agenda both at the UN General Assembly session and at the first in the recent two years tete-a-tete with the American President Barack Obama. The Kremlin had wanted to shift the focus to the Syrian crisis and urge the countries to unite, under Russia’s lead, in a broad coalition (including Syria’s president Bashar al-Assad) to fight ISIL, and thus distract the world’s attention from Russia’s aggression in Donbas.

During the speech of the Russian president, Ukraine’s delegation left the assembly hall as a sign of protest against the Kremlin’s aggression. Experts call Putin’s speech weak and meant for the domestic audience. Former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul tweeted that “Putin’s call for countries to respect sovereignty of states sounds incredibly hypocritical given Russian interventions in Ukraine and Georgia.”

In his 42-minute-long speech, the American leader also touched upon the Syrian issue but excluded Assad, whose crimes triggered the civil war in the country. At the same time, Obama gave a clear message that the West will continue economic sanctions against Russia until the latter changes its policy. “We cannot stand by when the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a nation is flagrantly violated.”

Given that half of the 90-minute-long meeting of the two leaders was dedicated to Ukraine, Putin can hardly have scored there, even though he said after the meeting that the talks had been “candid” and showed that the parties could cooperate to solve common issues.

American media reports suggest that, according to the White House, despite a lack of progress both on Ukraine and Syria, the meeting still made some sense. Both parties stated that the pro-Russian separatists must give the OSCE representatives full access to all checkpoints. It was also said that it was the highest time to start the withdrawal of all Russian troops from the occupied areas and to restore Ukrainian control of the border. In this respect, Obama reminded Putin that there still are two months before the year is out, and the time is quite enough to implement the Minsk accords.

Voice of America cites an official in the American Administration: “The president reiterated our support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Ukraine government. Obama also noted positive opportunity to implement the Minsk accord in the next few months.”

The same was reaffirmed by Obama during his meeting with Poroshenko on Monday. According to Poroshenko’s press secretary Sviatoslav Tseholko, Obama emphasized that the US is going to further back Ukraine, which is implementing reforms and keeps looking for a diplomatic solution to the conflict.

A question arises if Ukraine succeeded in achieving its goals, in particular, intensifying American pressure on Putin to stop Russian aggression and implement the Minsk accords, which are considered as the only method of solving the crisis in Donbas.

A Ukrainian diplomat with intimate knowledge of the backstage in the UN and White House shared off the record that the Ukrainian delegation’s chief goal at the UN and the numerous talks on the sidelines of the assembly in New York was to get over our message to the world once again. “This is very important, for the UN General Assembly is the mouthpiece allowing nations to share their problems, plans, and intentions, and propose solutions to global, regional, and local issues. For us it is also important that this organization becomes more efficient and capable of solving the burning issues of today. This is particularly true of the UN Security Council, which indeed stumbles when it comes to grave conflicts and when one of the parties involved, Russia, is the SC permanent member, which despises international law and yearns for domination. In this direction, a lot has been done by the president personally, and by the entire delegation,” said our interlocutor.

In a comment about the initiative proposed by a number of countries to curb the veto right for permanent members of the Security Council, the diplomat said that it would be possible if there were strong will of all the other four Security Council members to force the fifth to honor the norms of international law.

Answering the question about the possible effect of Obama’s transparent appeals to Russia, made at the UN, and his 90-minute-long meeting with Putin, on Russia’s willingness to implement the Minsk accord, the diplomat said the following:

“It is very important that Ukrainian issue was raised in the course of this meeting. For us the United States’ robust support is absolutely essential, Ukraine would have found it very challenging otherwise. So, in this context Putin saw again that the US and the West on the whole continue to strongly support Ukraine, and that it would be absolutely worthless to hope for the lifting of the sanctions with Putin’s current policy.

SEPTEMBER 28, 2015. U.S. PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA AND UKRAINE’S PRESIDENT PETRO POROSHENKO AT THE UNITED NATIONS GENERAL ASSEMBLY IN NEW YORK / REUTERS photo

“On the other hand, we must not expect any radical changes in Putin’s standpoint. His strategy remains virtually unchanged: the Kremlin will not hear of a prosperous Ukraine, which in its opinion would jeopardize the entire Russian empire. So, the policy will focus on spreading chaos across Ukraine and putting our country in effective dependence from Moscow, isolating it from the West and showing that Ukraine is a failed state, so the West could go on solving its own problems, while the Kremlin would preoccupy itself with the Ukrainian problem. Such is the concept, which Moscow is closely following now and which it is not going to give up, at least in the near future. It would be possible to change Putin’s personal policy, and that of the Kremlin, only when they realized that the West’s sanctions are not going to be lifted, and can and will only toughen, and together with falling oil prices this will drag Russia to a collapse. Only then could Putin consider his options and look for ways out of the situation, trying to save his face in the process and secure his grip on power. This is actually what he is fighting for: himself, his own future. Other things, let alone the interests of the Russian people, are of the least concern to him.”

There have been reports from certain sources about a possible visit of the US president to Ukraine before the year is out. The Ukrainian diplomat confirmed that the organization of the visit is being discussed at a high level, and there are hopes that such a visit can take place this year. “Obama’s visit to Ukraine would become an extremely powerful impact and a demonstration to the world of a stable and powerful support for Ukraine,” emphasized our interlocutor.

Speaking of Ukraine’s expectations concerning the US aid, the diplomat said: “It is important that the US remain the leader in extending help to Ukraine, and the leader in the existing pro-Ukrainian coalition including the US, the EU, Japan, Canada, Australia, and Korea. For us it is important that America should consolidate the Western world, so that the Kremlin could feel that every aggressive move in Ukraine’s direction would have repercussions: sanctions and the intensification of international isolation.

“It is important that America showed an example and lifted the standards of assistance. Today we have very serious financial aid from the US, and its military and technical aid is also quite robust. Of course, providing Ukraine with defensive weapons remains on the agenda, and this issue remains burning for us. Both America and Europe keep considering it. And so far, they have not said no, so the issue remains on the table. The Ukrainian side certainly keeps working on increasing of immediate help in concrete areas.”

EXPERT OPINIONS

Hanna HOPKO, chairperson of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Foreign Affairs, from New York:

“The 70th United Nations General Assembly has gathered world leaders who make effective statements from the podium of this prestigious organization. We have heard calls to reform the UN in conformity with the 21st-century challenges or to expand membership in the Security Council, but nothing further. Where are the effective measures like a fair trial of Putin in the form of an MH17 tribunal? Disconnecting from SWIFT as punishment for all Putin’s crimes in Transnistria, Georgia, and Ukraine? So far, the international community has failed to make efficient effort to stop Putin and prevent him from meddling with Syria, where under the disguise of peacemaker he would buy loyalty as warmonger. Conversely, the world leaders lack initiative and leadership in solving the world’s top priority problems, including Russian aggression and the war in the east of Ukraine. There never was a joint meeting of Obama and Normandy Four. Is this a communication or leadership problem? The balance is broken. What is good for some world leaders, is bad for others.”

Steven PIFER, senior fellow, Brookings Institution’s Center on the United States and Europe, Washington, D.C.:

“Unfortunately, President Putin’s speech to the UN General Assembly did not suggest any fundamental change in Russian policy toward Ukraine. While he stated that peace can be achieved only through implementation of the Minsk 2 agreement, he offered nothing to suggest that Moscow would do more beyond the belated ceasefire in September to implement the Minsk 2 provisions.

“What this means for Russia’s further strategy toward Ukraine remains to be seen. Moscow may calculate that there is value in maintaining the ceasefire, in hopes of weakening European resolve on the economic and visa sanctions. That said, senior German and other European diplomats insist that only full implementation of Minsk 2, not just the ceasefire, can trigger relaxation of the sanctions, and President Obama in his speech underscored his support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

“An early test of Moscow’s intentions will be the local elections in October. Foreign Minister Lavrov has given mixed signals on this question. In early September, he called for the elections in the occupied parts of Donetsk and Luhansk to be carried out on October 25 in accordance with Ukrainian law, as required by the Minsk 2 agreement. But Mr. Lavrov later seemed to back away from that. The US and European officials have made clear that separate elections in Donetsk and Luhansk     – sometimes referred to as ‘sham’ elections – will have no credibility in the West. Some officials have even suggested that ‘sham’ elections could trigger additional sanctions.”

John HERBST, former US Ambassador to Ukraine, member of the Atlantic Council; Washington, D.C.:

“The essential point is that Putin has calmed things down the Donbas because it is becoming clear that his policy is not working and he wants to see if a sharp drop in the fighting will persuade the Europeans to ease sanctions in January. He is intervening in Syria because 1) he sees an opportunity and 2) it permits him to lower the tension in Ukraine while still playing the tough guy fighting the West.

“Putin’s speech at the UN was consistent with this. He paid most attention to Syria; he slammed the US and the West – without naming them – but he also spent a bit of time portraying what happened in Ukraine in ways to justify his intervention.

“So, my expectation is that after New York, Putin will maintain the lull in the Donbas, but do nothing more to implement Minsk 2. He has not given up his objective of destabilizing the reform government in Ukraine. But if the lull does not lead to an easing of sanctions in January, he will have to decide whether to resume hostilities or to keep the lull. Putin will have no success in using Syria to get Western concessions on Ukraine. Moscow’s intervention in Syria has been slammed in Washington and West European capitals. Obama has only limited time in NYC. Putin’s Syrian adventure created interest in Washington in a meeting. The Europeans also like the idea of Obama seeing Putin. Poroshenko does not like the idea that Obama is meeting with Putin and not with him.

“The Administration is considering a possible Obama trip to Kyiv this year.”