NATO inadequately assesses clear and present danger

Russia has of late stepped up provocative flights close to the airspace of NATO member countries. Over a hundred Russian military aircraft intercepts have been registered since the start of the year, three times the number on record in 2013. NATO experts point out that there are more such airspace provocations than at the peak of the Cold War. “Russian military aircraft [long-range strategic bombers and fighters] conducted aerial maneuvers around Europe [over the Baltic, North, and Black seas] this week on a scale seldom seen since the end of the Cold War, prompting NATO jets to scramble in another sign of how raw East-West relations have grown.” (The Wall Street Journal, http://on.wsj.com / 1zMYMg0) Adding that these relations have been going from bad to worse because of what is happening in the east of Ukraine. Die Welt assumes that Putin is thus testing NATO defenses.

The question is: What is Russia trying to achieve by such airspace provocations? Die Welt writes that Putin is thus testing NATO defenses. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said the Alliance’s air patrols have been increased fivefold and that NATO military presence in the Baltic and Black seas is a priority. Deutsche Welle quotes him as saying that the Alliance is moving further apart from what was sought after the end of the Cold War, namely cooperation, constructive relationships between NATO and Russia.

Russia is stepping up its airspace Cold War, in violation of the Minsk accords. The Kremlin appears to ignore the international community’s calls for stopping hostilities in the Donbas. Russia has recognized the results of the rigged elections in the self-styled DNR and LNR, despite the international community’s explicit non-recognition response. No one will ever believe such political cliches as Russia being NATO’s number-one partner, and that NATO-Russia relations will, therefore, remain on the same basis – because no one believes today that the Kremlin can be talked into acting in accordance with international law.

The way Germany – the key European political game player – has reacted to Russia’s airspace Cold War doesn’t add optimism to the situation. October 30, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she was not very concerned about sorties by Russian strategic bombers over the Atlantic and Black Sea and by its fighters over the Baltic which NATO said it had tracked on Wednesday.

The Day asked its expert for comment on the West’s response to Russia’s airspace provocations, and on how Europe should’ve reacted to them.

EUROPE WAKES UP AFTER THE WAR ENDS

Hryhorii PEREPELYTSIA, Ph.D. (conflict studies), lecturer, Taras Shevchenko National University:

“Russia is extending its proxy war frontlines to NATO’s north flank. This means that Moscow is starting a war against the Baltic States. In fact, there is information warfare underway, owing to vast Russian spy networks there. This includes the so-called volunteers – young Latvians – being prepared in Russia’s combat training center to fight their homeland.

“Phase One of this proxy war is latent, the way it was in Ukraine, back in 2013. Then it will get active, the way it happened in Crimea and then in Donbas, with such ‘volunteers’ seizing public buildings in Lithuania and Latvia.

“Statements and other efforts being made by the West are absolutely inadequate to the situation that has developed – the way it happened when Russia started a war of aggression against Georgia. Russia was never punished for this, with OSCE finally blaming both Georgia and Russia for the armed conflict. In the end, this impunity encouraged Russia to invade Ukraine.

“True, the West has carried out sanctions against Russia, but they have failed to produce a result strong enough to make Putin and the brainwashed masses of Russia think twice before continuing this [undeclared] war against Ukraine. This is proof that NATO is not prepared to cope with this proxy warfare, that the Alliance has failed to adequately assess the clear and present danger on its northern flank.

“Germany is biding its time, although there is fair chance that this strategy will end up with Russian tanks approaching Berlin/Bonn. True, after the capitulation of the Third Reich, Germans have developed a Russia fear syndrome and it has played a major role in the mass and upper-echelons-of-power mentality.

“The current situation is also very dangerous for the Baltic countries, for Poland, and even for Germany. Germans are scared by getting involved in a war with Russia. No precautions had been taken before the Second World War broke out. While the European political leaders were busy trying to pacify Hitler, never bothering to get prepared for war, the Fuehrer seized the Western and Central Europe without firing a single shot. Europeans are replaying the pacification scenario in dealing with Putin.

“Putin keeps studying European history and appears confident that Europe is an easy prey, that he will conquer it without much ado. Nor is it coincidental that Putin is spreading his proxy warfare all over the European continent.

“In terms of defenses, the Baltic region presents quite a problem, whereas Russia could seize it comparatively easily. It could launch an offensive from the mainland. Constant airspace provocations over the Baltic Sea are proof that Russians are preparing an operation aimed at securing airspace supremacy there. This means that NATO won’t be able to use air raids to combat Russian ground forces, if and when.

“The final phase would be Russian invasion of the Baltic region, considering that each Baltic country has a token military NATO presence, amounting to a battalion. An easy prey for the Russian aggressor, the more so that the Russian command is sure NATO will never use weapons of mass destruction. In other words, seizing the Baltic bridgehead will be easy and Russia could deal NATO a heavy blow, acting within such a small theater of hostilities, even though NATO military capacities are five times those of Russia. Should NATO respond to this challenge the way it did in regard to Ukraine, this might well be the end of the Alliance. Europe would then be ready to be taken by the Kremlin in a matter of days. For example, the Bundeswehr doesn’t even have national defense plans because all such planning is done at the NATO headquarters and the Russian foreign intelligence service is well aware of the situation. I think Putin wasn’t bluffing when he said that Poland could be taken in two weeks, and the Baltic countries in two days. Given NATO’s inactivity, such a combat mission would be much easier to carry out than the Donbas war against Ukraine.”